Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: AI-Led Risk-Off Shock Erases Rally as BTC Tests $75K | 6 November 2026

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap | 6 November 2026

Crypto markets finished the week under renewed pressure as Thursday’s technology-led sell-off erased the post-election rebound. Bitcoin returned to the mid-$70,000s, Ether fell more than 7% in the latest session, and selling spread across XRP, Solana and Cardano. Monero was the notable exception, retaining a stronger daily structure and finishing the 30 October to 5 November comparison period higher.

The week’s central lesson is that crypto is still trading as a high-beta risk asset when global liquidity and technology valuations come under pressure. The Binance security incident remains a separate exchange and custody concern, while the sharp equity decline added a macro risk-off impulse. Those forces arrived together, amplifying volatility and triggering forced position reductions.

Market snapshot: latest completed daily close on 5 November 2026 (UTC). Weekly performance compares 30 October with 5 November closes and is indicative. Daily technical readings were checked on 6 November UTC, except XMR’s latest daily feed, dated 5 November. Prices and indicator values can differ between exchanges and data providers.

1. Current Price and Market Structure

Asset	5 Nov close	30 Oct to 5 Nov	Daily RSI (14)	Daily structure	Key support / resistance
Bitcoin (BTC)	~$75,963	-1.6%	38.33	Below major daily EMAs; just below EMA 200, above SMA 200	$75,115 / $78,085
Ethereum (ETH)	~$2,238.50	-0.1%	39.37	Below major daily averages; holding above SMA 200	$2,190 / $2,272
XRP	~$1.2075	-3.9%	35.58	Below 20, 50, 100 and 200-day averages	$1.20 / $1.22
Solana (SOL)	~$89.00	-7.5%	28.45	Below major averages and marginally below SMA 200	$87.67 / $89.38
Cardano (ADA)	~$0.1787	-8.4%	31.21	Below all major daily moving averages	$0.1740 / $0.1822
Monero (XMR)	~$636.93	+8.5%	66.45	Above major daily averages; momentum extended	$573.11 / $647.15

The broad market is defensive, but not uniform. BTC and ETH have weakened sharply while remaining close to important longer-term reference points. XRP and ADA have weaker trend structures because price is below both their 50- and 200-period averages. SOL is pressing against its 200-day simple moving average after a steep weekly decline. XMR is the clear relative-strength outlier, although its weekly RSI is now above 70 and warns that the advance is extended.

Coin365’s market snapshot, checked at 04:15 UTC on 6 November, showed total crypto market capitalisation near $2.57 trillion and Bitcoin dominance around 59.16%. That dominance reading is consistent with a market where capital is concentrating in the largest asset while many altcoins remain under pressure. These are provider snapshots and can move quickly.

2. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin closed the latest completed session near $75,963 after the post-election recovery toward $80,000 was reversed. The 5 November session reached a low around the mid-$75,000s in several market feeds. BTC’s weekly close-to-close change from 30 October was approximately -1.6%, but that modest net change hides a wide intraperiod swing: the market rallied, reversed and then tested support again.

Trend-Line Analysis

The daily technical feed showed RSI at 38.33, MACD below its signal line, ADX at 20.52 and a bearish SuperTrend reference near $82,484. BTC remained below its 20-day EMA near $79,569, 50-day EMA near $79,976 and 50-day SMA near $82,042. It was also slightly below the 200-day EMA near $76,532, although still above the 200-day SMA near $73,230. That difference matters: the longer-term moving-average picture is mixed rather than uniformly broken.

The first support cluster is $75,115, followed by $74,269 and $72,893. A daily close below $75,115 would increase the risk of a move toward the low-$74,000s and then the 200-day SMA area. On the recovery side, BTC needs to regain $78,085, then $79,326. The stronger repair test is $81,731, with the 50-day SMA above that region.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $75,115, $74,269 and $72,893.
• Resistance: $78,085, $79,326 and $81,731.

Indicators & Momentum

RSI below 40 shows weak momentum but is not, by itself, a reversal signal. MACD is negative and below its signal line, while ADX around 20 suggests the daily trend has some strength but is not exceptionally strong. The lower Bollinger Band is near $75,666 and the upper band near $84,409. A move back inside the band after a support test could mark stabilisation, but buyers still need to reclaim nearby moving averages. The weekly RSI near 52.3 is neutral, which shows that the weekly momentum picture is less damaged than the daily one.

3. Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Ether closed near $2,238.50 after a sharp reversal from the 4 November rebound. Its 30 October to 5 November net change was close to flat, but the path was volatile: a recovery toward the mid-$2,400s was followed by a sell-off that brought price back toward the lower end of the recent range.

Trend-Line Analysis

ETH’s daily RSI was 39.37, ADX 27.04 and MACD remained below zero, although its reading was marginally above the signal line. Price was below the 20-day EMA near $2,347, 50-day EMA near $2,404 and 50-day SMA near $2,505. The 200-day SMA was around $2,157, while the 200-day EMA was around $2,316. ETH is therefore above the long-term simple average but below the exponential average, a mixed long-term signal inside a weak daily and weekly structure.

The nearest support references are $2,190, $2,166 and $2,128. A daily close below $2,128 would materially weaken the case for a simple consolidation. On the upside, $2,272 is the first reclaim level, followed by $2,329 and $2,390. A stronger trend repair would require the market to recover the $2,400 area and then the 50-day average.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $2,190, $2,166 and $2,128.
• Resistance: $2,272, $2,329 and $2,390.

Indicators & Momentum

The lower Bollinger Band is near $2,197 and the upper band near $2,489. The daily SuperTrend remains bearish around $2,457. The weekly RSI near 48.7 is neutral, but the weekly technical rating remains negative and price is below the 50- and 200-period weekly EMAs. ETH needs to hold the $2,190-$2,166 area and reclaim $2,329 before the latest bounce can be treated as more than a counter-trend recovery.

4. XRP (XRP/USD)

XRP closed near $1.2075, down approximately 3.9% from its 30 October close. It was among the assets hit by Thursday’s broad risk reduction, and the daily technical picture remains weak. The XRP Ledger’s planned amendment activity is a separate network-development issue and should not be confused with the price trend or the broader market sell-off.

Trend-Line Analysis

Daily RSI was 35.58, MACD was below its signal line and ADX was 19.05, indicating weak trend strength. XRP was below the 20-day EMA near $1.29, 50-day EMA near $1.33, 100-day EMA near $1.32, 200-day EMA near $1.36 and 200-day SMA near $1.27. The $1.20 area is the immediate support test. Below it, the next references are $1.19 and $1.16.

Recovery attempts first need to reclaim $1.22 and $1.24. The more important resistance zone is $1.30, followed by the moving-average cluster around $1.27-$1.38. A short-lived bounce toward $1.24 would not repair the structure while the larger averages remain overhead.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $1.20, $1.19 and $1.16.
• Resistance: $1.22, $1.24 and $1.30.

Indicators & Momentum

The lower Bollinger Band is near $1.22, placing price close to the lower volatility envelope. The SuperTrend reference near $1.38 remains bearish. Weekly RSI around 45.2 is neutral, but the weekly technical rating remains negative and price is below the 50- and 200-period weekly EMAs. A daily close back above $1.24 would be an early stabilisation signal; reclaiming $1.30 would be more meaningful.

5. Solana (SOL/USD)

Solana finished the 5 November session near $89, down approximately 7.5% from 30 October. SOL was one of the weakest assets in this six-coin review. The decline has brought price to the area of its 200-day simple moving average, a level that traders often use to distinguish a deep correction from a broader trend breakdown.

Trend-Line Analysis

Daily RSI was 28.45, ADX 33.36 and MACD remained negative. The combination points to a strong downtrend with oversold momentum. Price was below the 20-day EMA near $98.86, 50-day EMA near $102.41, 100-day EMA near $99.46 and 50-day SMA near $108.46. The 200-day SMA was around $89.02, while the 200-day EMA was near $97.94. SOL’s position just below the simple average makes the $87.67-$89.38 region particularly important.

Support references are $87.67, $85.96 and $84.83. Resistance begins at $89.38, then $90.84 and $93.55. If buyers reclaim $93.55 and hold it, the market could attempt a larger relief move. Until then, rallies remain vulnerable to selling below the moving-average cluster near $98-$108.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $87.67, $85.96 and $84.83.
• Resistance: $89.38, $90.84 and $93.55.

Indicators & Momentum

The lower Bollinger Band was near $89.55 and the upper band near $109.74. SuperTrend remained bearish near $103.71. The weekly RSI near 47.9 was neutral, but the weekly trend rating remained bearish and price was below the 50- and 200-period weekly EMAs. Oversold conditions can produce fast rebounds, but the daily and weekly trend evidence still favours caution until price reclaims key levels.

6. Cardano (ADA/USD)

Cardano closed near $0.1787, down approximately 8.4% from 30 October. ADA was the weakest performer in the six-asset group over this comparison period. Its price remains below the key daily moving averages, leaving little technical evidence of a sustained recovery.

Trend-Line Analysis

The 6 November daily technical feed showed RSI at 31.21, ADX at 31.97 and MACD below its signal line. The lower Bollinger Band was near $0.1791 and the upper band near $0.2300. SuperTrend remained bearish near $0.2167. The EMA 20 was around $0.2038, EMA 50 around $0.2145, EMA 100 around $0.2144 and SMA 50 around $0.2277. The broader moving-average cluster is overhead.

Support references are $0.1740, $0.1716 and $0.1692. Resistance begins around $0.1822, followed by $0.1895 and $0.1929. A recovery above $0.1895 would be an early improvement, but a more convincing trend repair would require a sustained move toward the $0.20-$0.21 area and then the 50-day average.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $0.1740, $0.1716 and $0.1692.
• Resistance: $0.1822, $0.1895 and $0.1929.

Indicators & Momentum

RSI is close to the oversold threshold and CCI is also in oversold territory. That describes the intensity of recent selling, not a confirmed bottom. The weekly RSI near 43.1 remains weak and the weekly technical rating is bearish. A daily bullish MACD divergence is worth monitoring, but it needs price confirmation and a recovery through resistance before it can be treated as a reversal signal.

7. Monero (XMR/USD)

Monero was the clear relative-strength outlier. XMR closed near $636.93 on 5 November, up approximately 8.5% from 30 October. It has remained above its daily 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-period moving averages in the cited technical feed, while most of the other large-cap assets have traded below their key averages.

Trend-Line Analysis

Daily RSI was 66.45, MACD was positive and above its signal line, and ADX was 27.31. The daily SuperTrend reference near $549.90 remained bullish. The 20-day EMA was near $596.92, 50-day EMA near $564.32, 100-day EMA near $516.21 and 50-day SMA near $568.04. Those averages create a wide support structure below the latest price.

Immediate support references are $573.11, $566.55 and $543.74. Resistance sits near $647.15 and $654.48, with the next higher reference much further away near $794.68. A daily close above $654.48 would strengthen the continuation case. A loss of $573 would weaken the near-term structure and could invite a deeper pullback toward the mid-$560s.

Key Support & Resistance

• Support: $573.11, $566.55 and $543.74.
• Resistance: $647.15, $654.48 and $794.68.

Indicators & Momentum

XMR’s daily Bollinger upper band was near $636.54, putting price at the upper edge of the recent volatility envelope. The weekly RSI was 72.27, an overbought reading, while weekly ADX was strong near 42.27. This confirms the strength of the recent move but also raises the probability of consolidation or a pullback. Relative strength is not immunity: privacy-coin liquidity, exchange access and jurisdiction-specific restrictions remain important risks.

8. News, ETF Flows & Sentiment

The AI-led equity sell-off spills into crypto

Reuters reported on 5 November that the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%. The Nasdaq 100 decline erased approximately $2.5 trillion in market value. Investors were reassessing the economics and financing of AI infrastructure and data-centre expansion after the U.S. midterm election result raised concerns about future scrutiny and permitting. This was a broad risk-asset repricing, not a crypto-only event.

CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin fell back toward $76,000, Ether was down roughly 7.5% over 24 hours and XRP and Solana were each lower by around 5.5% at the time of its report. The same report described more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto bets being liquidated. Forced liquidations can accelerate a move because positions are closed automatically when collateral or maintenance-margin thresholds are breached.

Binance recovery does not erase the security overhang

The estimated $6.3 billion Binance security incident continued to influence confidence. Reuters reported on 2 November that customers had withdrawn a net $4.72 billion after withdrawals resumed, representing around 3% of platform assets. Binance said it had seen approximately $2.7 billion in customer inflows and that withdrawal volumes were stabilising. The exchange said it would cover customer losses, but the incident still raises questions about operational security, custody, liquidity concentration and the controls used to protect customer assets.

These risks must be separated. A breach at a centralised exchange does not automatically mean the Bitcoin or Ethereum protocols have been compromised. It does, however, demonstrate that users can face losses or access restrictions through custodial, operational and counterparty failures even when the underlying networks continue to function.

ETF flows are mixed and provider coverage differs

Coinmico’s tracker showed approximately $127.6 million of net inflows on 4 November, including $74.57 million for Bitcoin ETFs and $53.02 million for Ether ETFs. A separate multi-asset tracker showed net outflows across its broader ETF group through 5 November. These datasets differ in coverage and methodology, so a single daily figure should not be treated as a complete measure of institutional conviction. The more useful conclusion is that demand was selective and did not prevent the sharp risk-off move on Thursday.

Sentiment remains defensive

The latest directly verifiable Alternative.me-based Fear & Greed reading in the checked source snapshot was 26, in the Fear zone, on 3 November; a fresher 6 November value could not be independently confirmed at publication time. Coin365’s market snapshot, checked at 04:15 UTC on 6 November, showed Bitcoin dominance around 59.16%. The combination of weak sentiment and elevated Bitcoin dominance is consistent with investors reducing exposure to higher-beta altcoins and concentrating liquidity in the largest asset. Fear readings can persist during prolonged declines and should not be used as a standalone buy signal.

Sources: Reuters, 5 November 2026: Nasdaq and AI infrastructure sell-off; CoinDesk, 5 November 2026: Bitcoin and crypto liquidations; Reuters, 2 November 2026: Binance withdrawals and recovery; Coinmico: spot ETF flows; Alpha Finance: multi-asset ETF flows; Crypto Fear & Greed Index snapshot.

9. Market Regime

Trend: The daily trend is weak across BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA. BTC and ETH are near important long-term moving-average references, SOL is testing its 200-day simple average, and XRP and ADA remain below their major moving-average clusters. XMR is the only asset in this review with a clearly positive daily moving-average structure.

Momentum: RSI readings are weak for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA. SOL is below 30, while ADA is close to that threshold. XMR’s daily RSI is strong but its weekly RSI is overbought. MACD remains negative on most of the group, while XMR’s positive MACD is consistent with its relative strength.

Volatility: The equity sell-off and liquidation wave increased short-term volatility. ATR readings in the technical feeds are elevated for SOL and ADA, so stop distances and position sizes need to reflect the larger daily ranges. Narrow stops can be triggered by normal volatility rather than a genuine change in the thesis.

Liquidity and counterparty risk: The Binance incident remains a reminder that venue risk is different from asset risk. Traders should consider custody concentration, withdrawal access, venue spreads, collateral location and counterparty exposure separately from chart signals.

Sentiment: Fear is elevated. A low sentiment reading can precede a relief rally, but it can also persist while price continues lower. Confirmation from price structure and improving breadth is more useful than sentiment alone.

10. Weekly Scenarios

Scenario	Illustrative weight	Conditions to monitor	Potential market path
Bullish relief and stabilisation	15%	BTC holds $75,115 and reclaims $78,085-$79,326; Nasdaq stabilises; ETF demand broadens; exchange-security updates remain constructive	Short-covering bounce across major assets, with resistance tests before any trend reversal is confirmed
Base case: volatile consolidation	50%	BTC holds the $74,000-$75,000 region; ETH defends $2,166-$2,190; altcoins remain mixed; XMR consolidates below resistance	Choppy price action, uneven relative performance and repeated support/resistance tests
Bearish continuation	35%	BTC loses $74,269; ETH breaks $2,128; SOL loses $85.96; ADA breaks $0.1716; equity volatility remains elevated	Further de-risking, renewed liquidations and deeper tests of lower support levels

These weights are qualitative scenario allocations for analysis and discussion. They are not statistically derived probabilities, forecasts supplied by a trading venue or guarantees of future price movement. They should be reassessed as new market data and verified news become available.

11. What to Watch Next Week

• Whether BTC can hold $75,115 and recover $78,085, or whether the $74,269 and $72,893 supports come into focus.
• Whether ETH defends $2,190-$2,166 and reclaims $2,272-$2,329.
• Whether XRP can stabilise above $1.20 and recover $1.24.
• Whether SOL can regain $90.84 and $93.55, or loses the $87.67 support zone.
• Whether ADA can hold $0.1740 and reclaim $0.1822-$0.1895.
• Whether XMR can break $647-$654 with volume or begins consolidating after its strong run.
• Daily spot ETF flows, with attention to whether inflows broaden beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
• Equity-market volatility, semiconductor performance and changes in risk appetite.
• Verified updates on Binance’s security review, asset recovery and normalisation of withdrawals and deposits.
• Funding rates, open interest, liquidation data and order-book depth across major trading venues.

12. Educational Insight: Why Oversold Markets Can Keep Falling

RSI compares the magnitude of recent gains with recent losses over a defined look-back period. A reading below 30 is commonly described as oversold. It means selling has been unusually strong relative to the recent price history. It does not mean that an asset is undervalued, that sellers have finished or that a rebound must occur immediately.

In a strong downtrend, RSI can remain below 30 while price continues to make lower lows. That is why the Big 5 Capital framework checks several independent forms of evidence rather than relying on one oscillator:

• Moving averages: show whether price is above or below short-, medium- and long-term trend references.
• RSI: measures momentum and can help identify stretched conditions or potential divergence.
• MACD: tracks the relationship between moving averages and helps assess momentum direction and acceleration.
• ADX: measures trend strength, not whether the trend is bullish or bearish. A high ADX can describe a strong decline just as easily as a strong advance.
• Bollinger Bands: show a volatility envelope around a moving average. Price touching the lower band in a downtrend is not automatically a buy signal.
• Parabolic SAR or SuperTrend: provide a trailing directional reference that can help structure stop-management decisions when used with price action.
• Support and resistance: identify the prices where a market view can be tested, confirmed or invalidated.
• Multi-timeframe confirmation: compares daily signals with weekly structure. A daily oversold reading against a bearish weekly trend is different from an oversold reading while the weekly trend remains constructive.

A stronger reversal case would require price to defend a defined support area, form a higher low or bullish divergence, improve the MACD histogram and reclaim a relevant moving average. The combination is more informative than any one indicator in isolation.

13. Big 5 Capital View

This week ended with a clear reminder that crypto does not trade in isolation. A technology and AI valuation shock hit global risk appetite just as the market was still absorbing a major exchange-security event. The result was a fast reversal, renewed liquidations and a defensive shift across most of the large-cap group.

BTC and ETH remain the key market barometers. Their nearby moving-average and support zones will help determine whether the sell-off remains a volatile correction or becomes a deeper trend deterioration. XRP and ADA have weaker structures and need to reclaim several layers of resistance. SOL is oversold but remains below its major averages. XMR has the strongest trend, although its weekly momentum is stretched and a pullback would not be surprising.

For the coming week, confirmation matters more than trying to call the exact low. Watch whether support holds on daily closes, whether ETF flows become broad-based, whether equity volatility eases and whether market depth normalises. A relief rally can happen inside a damaged trend. A durable recovery needs sustained follow-through across price, momentum and breadth.

14. Explore Big 5 Capital

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Disclaimer

This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and can result in significant losses. Technical indicators, price levels and scenario weights are analytical estimates, may differ between data providers and can change rapidly. Exchange, custody, liquidity and counterparty risks can result in losses even when an underlying blockchain continues to operate normally.

Always conduct your own research, verify information directly with relevant service providers and consider your personal risk tolerance before making financial decisions. Big 5 Capital and B5X do not guarantee outcomes or returns.

Data note: price snapshots are indicative 5 November 2026 UTC closes. Weekly percentage changes compare 30 October and 5 November closes and are calculated from the cited provider snapshots. Daily technical readings were checked on 6 November UTC, except XMR’s latest daily feed dated 5 November; weekly readings are based on the latest completed weekly update dated 1 November. Provider prices, indicator calculations and candle cut-offs can differ.

Sources and Data Notes

• Technical analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano and Monero.
• Price history: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, SOL/USD, ADA/USD and XMR/USD.
• Market news: Reuters, 5 November 2026; CoinDesk, 5 November 2026; Reuters, 2 November 2026.
• Flows and sentiment: Coinmico ETF flows; Alpha Finance ETF flows; Crypto Fear & Greed Index.